Tuesday, November 09, 2004
So We Win Fallujah. Then What? `
Thus queries Fred Kaplan's headline at Slate. Kaplan has some interesting restatements of fact regarding Fallujah. Obviously, the offensive was postponed until after the US Presidential election. Less obvious is the likely harmful effect of the extra 6 months spent fortifying, organizing and trap-setting.
On Iraqi Security forces: "National Public Radio's Anne Garrels, who is embedded with the Marines in Fallujah, reports that of the 500 Iraqi soldiers originally deployed to go in alongside U.S. forces only 170 were still on station when the operation began. The rest had deserted."
"The offensive is going to be a massive undertaking; the city is going to be pummeled by fire from the ground and the air; it will be hard to distinguish innocent civilians from insurgent fighters; and, given the warnings and the waiting and the declared urgency of the mission, there will be little incentive to try."
Print media had reported the Marines' seizure of the main hospital in Fallujah. Seems normal enough: what else is there to seize? Kaplan thinks it out a little further:
Coalition of the Waning
The article also summarizes a New York Times report on "Coalition" support evaporating, as evidenced by the ongoing reduction and removal of troops, despite our new offensive of the moment. Countries listed (with size of force reduction):
On Iraqi Security forces: "National Public Radio's Anne Garrels, who is embedded with the Marines in Fallujah, reports that of the 500 Iraqi soldiers originally deployed to go in alongside U.S. forces only 170 were still on station when the operation began. The rest had deserted."
"The offensive is going to be a massive undertaking; the city is going to be pummeled by fire from the ground and the air; it will be hard to distinguish innocent civilians from insurgent fighters; and, given the warnings and the waiting and the declared urgency of the mission, there will be little incentive to try."
Print media had reported the Marines' seizure of the main hospital in Fallujah. Seems normal enough: what else is there to seize? Kaplan thinks it out a little further:
"it is intriguing that the U.S. forces' first move, upon crossing into Fallujah Monday, was to seize the main hospital. In part, the step was practical. The site will be needed to care for the wounded. In part, it was a political. During the offensive last spring, U.S. commanders have said, the hospital issued inflated reports of civilian casualties for propaganda purposes. Capturing the site will not only prevent a repetition, it will also allow the United States to control the message about casualties. There are almost certain to be many deaths and injuries; how many of them will be reported is another matter."
Coalition of the Waning
The article also summarizes a New York Times report on "Coalition" support evaporating, as evidenced by the ongoing reduction and removal of troops, despite our new offensive of the moment. Countries listed (with size of force reduction):
- Hungary: (300);
- Spain: (1,300);
- Poland: (2,400);
- Netherlands: (1,400);
- Thailand: (450);
- Dominican Republic: (302);
- Nicaragua: (115);
- Honduras: (370);
- Philippines: (51);
- Norway: (155);
- New Zealand: (60);
- Singapore: (159) from 191 to 32;
- Moldova: (30) from 42 to 12; and
- Bulgaria: (53) from 483 to 430.
Eerily enough, the Christian Science Monitor headlines a different article by staff writers Peter Grier and Faye Bowers almost identically: After the Fallujah fight, then what?
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